Pretty much every time you look at a specific species, there will be a couple animals you can buy from Frontier Zoo.Īt the same time, the market has animals that come from player’s zoos. These animals are not from players, and they usually have orange and red stats (basically they’re terrible), but they’re cheap. Return of the Obra Dinn: 17,159 reviews, released 2018, £15.For each animal, there’s a couple animals from “Frontier Zoo” you can buy for cash (sometimes a low amount of CC if it’s a rare/expensive animal). Planet Zoo: 56,782 reviews, released 2019 (post change), £34.99 release price, 89% reviews positive Slime Rancher: 92,721 reviews, released 2016, £14.99 release price, 97% reviews positive Sniper Elite: Nazi Zombie Army: 4,277 reviews, released 2013, £10.99 release price, 88% reviews positive War Thunder: 315,356 reviews, released 2013, Free to Play, 78% reviews positive Here are some games on Steam along with their store features - using the method we have outlined, how many players do you think they might have?īack 4 Blood: 38,016 reviews, released 2021, £49.99 release price, 64% reviews positiveĮnter the Gungeon: 67,237 reviews, released 2016, £10.99 release price, 96% reviews positive Following these steps for a particular game, you can get a players estimate that will be fairly close to those made with a much more complex model and in particular, insight into its level of success. We suggest first adjusting for the 2019 change, and then making an initial estimate around total reviews before adjusting based on the other 3 features. The total reviews count appears to capture general enthusiasm for a game, and is a strong place to start when predicting players. In future work we will discuss more of the details of this complex model. Predictions for Hunt: Showdown as of for the simple four feature model and the more complex model are 2,682,800 and 2,539,500 respectively. To improve precision, we can add complexity to our regression model through the use of additional features, such as playtime of review author and variance in review counts. The game reported 3 million players across all platforms in Feb 2021 (including Xbox and PlayStation, though these make up a small percentage of Hunt: Showdown's players) so this Steam estimate for April 2022 might be over-predicting slightly, but is not far off. We pick 70 players per review, multiply this by adjusted reviews of 60,798 and estimate just over 4 million players. Given the size of the game we might adjust to -30 or higher, but because the game is not extremely expensive or positively rated, we'll just do a small adjustment of -10. Game is not very old or very new, so ignore the age feature.Įxpensive and has a decent review score, so we reduce players per review. This gives an adjusted reviews of 60,798.Ĭhoose 80 players per review, as this is now under 100,000 reviews. Take the reviews total of 133,756 and divide by inflation factor 2.2, as it was released in 2018. We will estimate the players for Hunt: Showdown as a worked example (see Figures 6-7 for the features): If the game is under 2 months old, repeat with inflation factor of 1 and compare to the estimate with inflation factor of 3.4, giving you a range of estimates. The smaller the game, the more significant an adjustment you should make.įinally, multiply your adjusted reviews by this estimated players per review to get your players estimate. Decrease it for newer, more expensive and positively received games. Increase players per review for older, cheaper and negatively received games. Here we outline the final method for estimating players:įirst divide total reviews by 1.5 - 3.4 based on release year to remove the inflation from the 2019 change.Ĭhoose 80 players per review for games under 100,000 adjusted reviews, and 60 for games over 100,000.
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